SMU Election Project WV

And then it was done

2008-11-06T17:56:00.000-08:00

He might have won West Virginian hearts in almost ever demographic, but it didn't help him in the rest of the United States. In fact, West Virginia went almost the complete opposite of the greater voting population on November 4th. This might have had something to with the almost non-existent minority influence in the state, including blacks. In the CBS exit polls an unmeasurable number of black, Hispanic and Asian voters turned out in the state, all together making up about 5 percent of the voting population. Those who thought race was important factor (about 20 percent of the vote) voted 62 to 34 percent for McCain, though those who thought it was not an important factor were about equally split with a slight tilt for McCain.

All in all, the state went about 55 percent to 43 percent for McCain, with whites voting almost 60/40 for him. He won among
*all age groups
*men and women
*those who want a president who shared their values
*those who wanted a president who "cared about people like [them]"
*Republicans
*Independents (almost 60/40)
*Those who somewhat approve or somewhat disapprove of President Bush
*Evangelicals
*All education levels EXCEPT those with post-graduate degrees
*Those of all income levels EXCEPT those that make less than $30,000/year
*Those that decided on their candidate before September (55 percent of voters)
*Voters who felt terrorism was the most important issue
*Suburbs and small town/rural voter (95 percent)

Obama won amongst those that
*Decided on their candidate in early October
*Decided on their candidate sometime in September
*Thought bringing about change was the most important thing
*Democrats
*Those that strongly disagree with Bush
*Those who though the state of the economy is "poor"
*Labor union voters

Interestingly McCain won narrowly even among those who thought the economy was the main issue, but the majority of McCain voters had also made their decision months ago, suggesting the partisanship--not the economy--was the main issue for these voters. McCain even won among low-income, union, and less-educated voters.

Certainly the worries last month about West Virginia going blue were unfounded, and McCain wishes better represented the country as a whole.

And the final prediction is....

2008-11-03T14:36:00.001-08:00

It's been a long road with some ups and down, but West Virginia's 5 electoral votes are safe territory for McCain. Not only have the polls been splitting heavily in McCain's favor, but the accusations from the coal industry against Obama today won't help Obama make any ground here tomorrow.

Senator Rockefeller (D) and Governor Manchin (D) will pull it out again, despite the state's red presidential leaning. Congressman Capito (R) will pull through against this year.

Polling problems?

2008-11-03T14:31:00.001-08:00

The Charleston Gazette in West Virginia reported on some angry voters who claim the voting machines "switched" there vote from Obama to McCain. Click here for the complete story.

More W.Va. voters say machines are switching votes
In six cases, Democratic votes flipped to GOP

WINFIELD, W.Va. -- Three Putnam County voters say electronic voting machines changed their votes from Democrats to Republicans when they cast early ballots last week. This is the second West Virginia county where voters have reported this problem. Last week, three voters in Jackson County told The Charleston Gazette their electronic vote for "Barack Obama" kept flipping to "John McCain".

By Paul J. Nyden
Staff writer

WINFIELD, W.Va. -- Three Putnam County voters say electronic voting machines changed their votes from Democrats to Republicans when they cast early ballots last week.

This is the second West Virginia county where voters have reported this problem. Last week, three voters in Jackson County told The Charleston Gazette their electronic vote for "Barack Obama" kept flipping to "John McCain".

In both counties, Republicans are responsible for overseeing elections. Both county clerks said the problem is isolated.

They also blamed voters for not being more careful.

"People make mistakes more than machines," said Jackson County Clerk Jeff Waybright.

Shelba Ketchum, a 69-year-old nurse retired from Thomas Memorial Hospital, described what happened Friday at the Putnam County Courthouse in Winfield.

"I pushed buttons and they all came up Republican," she said. "I hit Obama and it switched to McCain. I am really concerned about that. If McCain wins, there was something wrong with the machines.

Turnout surges

2008-11-03T14:26:00.000-08:00

West Virginians aren't taking the election for granted this year, and are voting in massive numbers right along with the states still up for grabs in the election. Since early voting opened in the state a couple weeks ago nearly 13 percent of registered voters have already voted, a 22 percent increase since the last presidential election cycle. Mail-in ballots have also increased significantly this year.

Poll officials are predicting big things in tomorrow election.

Pollster averages shows McCain ok in WV

2008-11-01T11:54:00.000-07:00

WV microcosm of the economic issue?

2008-11-01T11:52:00.000-07:00

10 days to go...

2008-10-25T00:40:00.001-07:00

After some ups and downs it looks like McCain will hang on to West Virginia!

Drastic Drop-off

2008-10-21T14:41:00.000-07:00

Big buys for Obama

2008-10-19T22:13:00.000-07:00

Obama's record fundraising month will further his 50-state strategy in the last weeks before the election, including in West Virginia. He will be buying ads in West Virginia where he is hoping to close the gap and shore up his presidential nomination in November.

Obama drops off in WV

2008-10-19T22:04:00.000-07:00

Obama's numbers are dropping off in West Virginia since the last presidential debate, according to Pollster.com. Perhaps Joe the Plumber played well with the state's middle class?

Early voting

2008-10-16T11:44:00.001-07:00

As West Virginia defies all odds as a competitive state this fall the state's polls open and West Virginians lead off the last three weeks of the campaign.

Not so sure anymore

2008-10-13T07:42:00.001-07:00

A month ago it didn't seem like there was anything that could be done in West Virginia to get voters to swing Obama, but now the state is more competitive than Ohio and Florida according to pollster.com. The state is now a toss up, with McCain holding just one point over Obama.

Hardball

2008-10-07T09:39:00.000-07:00

The McCain campaign isn't the only group "straying" from the issue of the economy and engaging in personality attacks against his opponents. While it accuses the McCain campaign of distracting Americans from the "real issues" of the campaign, the Obama camp is releasing its own strong of attacks against campaign regarding the Keating Five scandal of the 1980's. Check out the video below that's being played in West Virginia.

Race in WV

2008-09-29T14:18:00.001-07:00

The legitimacy of the interviews are up in the air, but this was put together before the WV primary and suggests that race was an issue long before the general election.

Some Jolly Competition

2008-09-29T10:15:00.000-07:00

Look out Barack, John. You've got some competition on the ticket that could beat out Al Gore when it comes to name recognition: Santa Clause.

That's right, Santa Clause (formerly Thomas O'Conner) is one of the 14 write-in candidates on WV's ballot this November. No word on his VP pick, yet.

Racial Relations

2008-09-29T10:05:00.000-07:00

A West Virginia television station reported that race isn't an issue for more than 80 percent of West Virginia voters. It was also reported that McCain has a 10-point lead over Obama in the states, but had Clinton been the nominee voters would have her leading McCain by 10-points. It must be due, the station concluded, due to resentment over what happened to Clinton.

A 20 point-gap based on resentment?

While voluntary polls do give some indication to how voters feel about issues, they might not be as accurate when dealing with issues like race. In American culture any kind of racial prejudice is a major social misstep, something that few would dare admit to. However, polls cannot take into account what people are afraid to say, or what people don't even realize about themselves. It seems unlikely that that many people would abandon their political affiliations over resentment that hasn't seemed to play a huge role in any other state.

Obviously it would be wonderful if our country had come to a place where race was sincerely not an issue, but realistically we're not there yet.

***UPDATE***
A Yahoo! poll showed a possible six-point loss for Obama on elections day, a scenario that would tip the election to McCain.

Obama's moving up

2008-09-23T15:02:00.001-07:00

Since September 16th Obama's been closing the gap on McCain, something that contradicts the national trend of the McCain bounce following the RNC. The polling trends are also contradictory of Obama's performance in WV during the Dem. primaries, and how he is doing nationally witht he blue collar vote, a large percentage of WV voters.
Pollster has Obama with 42 percent of the vote in WV, compared to McCain's 45.3 percent. This is actually closer than the current polls for the "swing state" of Minnesota.

No Coal, No Biden

2008-09-23T14:54:00.000-07:00

VP nominee Biden fumbled with key southeastern and wester battleground states this weekend, including West Virginia, when he said he would not support building anymore coal mines if elected. The Obama/Biden platform says they support clean coal though they also advocate for other things like solar and electric cars.
Probably would have been better to stay silent on this topic than say anything at all, especially with the tough swing states this election cycle.

Racey Relations

2008-09-12T14:44:00.000-07:00

Marshal University in West Virginia will host a forum on race and the presidential election to combat the coverage the state received after the Democratic primary earlier this year. Allegations were made that the state went primarily to Clinton because of the racial issues that still thrive in the state. The allegations were supported by limited interviews with individuals who said race was a major factor for them.

Read More on the Marshall Parthenon website

Gap between McCain, Obama is narrowing in W.Va., poll suggests

2008-09-11T17:00:00.000-07:00

Independent voters will be key to victory
by Jake Stump
Daily Mail Capitol Reporter

CHARLESTON, W.Va. - The gap between John McCain and Barack Obama among West Virginia voters is slimmer than most political pundits had imagined, according to a new poll conducted by Charleston-based Mark Blankenship Enterprises.

The Republican ticket of Sen. McCain and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin holds just a 5 percent lead over Democratic nominees Sens. Obama and Joe Biden, concludes the telephone survey of 432 registered voters in the state. The firm said its poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

Forty-four percent said they were likely to vote for McCain/Palin in the November election compared to 39 percent who chose Obama/Biden. One in five voters said they were undecided.

READ MORE

Obama's Hitting up Clinton/McCain Territory

2008-09-09T09:23:00.000-07:00

Sep 09, 2008 @ 08:15 AM
By The Associated Press
Herald-Dispatch

CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) — Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is opening campaign offices in West Virginia.

The Illinois senator’s campaign is scheduled to hold an open house Tuesday evening at its headquarters in Charleston.

State Obama director Tom Vogel says the Charleston office is one of seven the campaign will staff leading up to November’s election.

The campaign has said it will have offices in Morgantown, the northern and eastern panhandles and southern West Virginia.

West Virginians overwhelmingly supported rival Democrat Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in May’s primary, but party officials say Democrats will unite behind Obama.

Party officials have said they hope Obama or his vice presidential running mate Senator Joseph Biden will make a stop in the state.

Going Red

2008-09-09T09:00:00.000-07:00

According to the National Journal 48% of West Virgina voters are evangelical or born-again Christians and 71% are in gun-owning households.

The Palin addition to the McCain ticket is likely to ensure that no amount of resources afforded to the Obama West Virginia campaign could kick this state off its three year "red streak."

WV could serve as a model of future problems for Obama

2008-08-25T12:18:00.000-07:00

On Tuesday night, while the G.O.P. Congressional candidate was losing in a Mississippi district George Bush carried in 2004 by 25 points, Barack Obama was being trounced in the West Virginia Democratic primary — by 41 points. I can’t find a single recent instance of a candidate who ultimately became his party’s nominee losing a primary by this kind of margin. The crucial swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania (whose primaries Obama also lost to Hillary Clinton) have a fair number of West Virginia-type working-class, culturally conservative voters. The Obama campaign can’t be confident about his prospects there in the fall.

READ MORE

Nothing Sure for McCain

2008-08-23T16:14:00.000-07:00

According to the latest poll by the NY Time, McCain is leading in WV in hopes of it 5 electoral votes, but considering WV's history and current governmental composition there's nothing to celebrate quite yet. 2000 was the first time the state went red in a presidential election for decades, and the majority of the state reps, senators, U.S. reps, both U.S. senators and the governor are democrats.

The Biden advancement for the Obama campaign will shake out interestingly for this state considering Biden's own southern sympathies, and while this state is "strongly McCain" for now, some fluctuation might not be out of the picture.

READ STATS

CQ Election Forcast: Southern Conservatives Break Dem. Hold

2008-08-20T23:39:00.000-07:00

Election Forecast 2008: West Virginia’s Split Ticket

By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Republican Favored

Electoral Votes: 5

It wasn’t long ago that West Virginia was among the most reliably Democratic states in presidential elections. But its voters generally are socially conservative — why most political scientists make the state part of the South — and are protective of the coal industry’s important role in the state’s economy. The real or perceived liberalism of recent Democratic nominees turned West Virginia Republican in the two George W. Bush elections, and it’s probably headed to John McCain this time.

Just throwing it out there...?

2008-08-20T23:26:00.000-07:00

WV GOVERNOR PREDICTS KAINE AS VP

Posted: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 6:08 PM by Domenico Montanaro
From NBC's Alex Wall

Despite all the talk of Biden for VP, West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) said he predicts that Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA) will be Obama's No. 2.

Speaking to a reporter from WSAZ in Charleston, W.V., Manchin made the case for his "dear friend."

"I am predicting that Tim Kaine will be the VP pick, and I think that this country will be blessed if that happens, and I know Barack will have a strong, strong ticket," he said. "Tim speaks very eloquently about the balance that's needed for energy and the compassion for people and the things that we believe in. It just resonates."

Manchin said he had just spoken to Kaine on the phone and that the Virginia governor still didn't know who the VP will be.

"Fingers are crossed," Manchin said. "He don't know. We just talked, he says, 'To be honest with you, Joe, I don't know.'"

firstread.msnbc.com